The Diplomacy of Chavez

The past few weeks have witnessed a rather interesting battle between the Colombian government and the infamous Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. For those who haven't been following due to the Odyssey of Ms. Clinton or the dire events in Pakistan, Kenya, and Sri Lanka, here's a summary:

Chavez has been getting highly involved with Colombia as he wishes to mediate between the government and the guerrilla groups to coordinate the release of hostages, especially the better known ones such as Ingrid Betancourt, who was kidnapped when she ran for president, Clara Rojas, who was working with Betancourt at the time of her abduction, and Emmanuel, the first child born in captivity, son of Rojas and a guerrilla soldier.

Last week, there was supposedly an agreement between Chavez and the guerrillas that would lead to the liberation of hostages on December 31, 2007, namely the young boy Emmanuel. However, nothing happened at all, leading many to question Chavez and the intentions of the guerrillas (who claimed they didn't show up because of military action nearby, which they feared represented a trap.) Chavez was further humiliated when it was revealed that Emmanuel had been in the hands of Bienestar Familiar, an agency that deals mostly with homeless children, as proven by DNA tests. This proved that the boasts that Emmanuel would be freed were empty. Chavez faced the world by saying that what was important was that Emmanuel was safe. Meanwhile, Uribe stated to the world that Colombia wanted no interference, as other countries (such as France) wish to intervene to release hostages.

Chavez, unhappy, claimed this week that he had obtained coordinates at which hostages Clara Rojas and Consuelo Gonzalez would be liberated. This time it came true and the said hostages were freed, taken by air to Venezuelan ground, and then sent back to their families. Chavez has used this as leverage to the claim that with him as mediator, he can manage to get other hostages freed.

To the government of Uribe, this is a tough blow. On one hand, accepting the aid of Chavez would please many and get several hostages home, including three Americans. However, doing this would leave Chavez with too much influence in the country's affairs, and it also would entail sacrifices, such as the liberation of captured guerrillas.
On the other hand, rejecting the aid will be seen as negative by the public due to the general desire to have hostages free. Additionally, back in July the president faced a pacifist congregation that took place in the Plaza de Bolivar (the political center of Bogota), assuring people that he'd work to get hostages free. Rejecting aid might also lead to different tactics from Chavez, but it would be a show of strength as Colombia had stated that it wished no foreign interference.

Considering the political conditions of the Continent, this is an important moment, as it will establish just how much power Chavez is exerting. It is a clear attempt of Chavez to expand his sphere of influence, for the sake of his "Bolivarian" revolution. This is seen in the way Chavez defends the Colombian guerrillas, claiming they're not terrorists, but revolutionaries (something that ceased to be true after the fall of more political groups such as the M19.) It is also seen in the way Chavez has not given up on his reform that would drastically change the Venezuelan constitution and increase his power. The increase in weaponry within Venezuela is also worthy of note...it leads to the question of how Chavez managed to negotiate effectively with the guerrillas.

My opinion is that this struggle will continue to play an important role until the end of President Uribe's term, after which the election of a new president will change conditions. I would recommend that these affairs be regarded as closely as those in the Middle East, as they play a major role in the politics of the Americas.